Category: Market Updates

Cap Rates Locked, Rent Growth Capped & the CMHC MLI Select Deadline: What It Means for Ontario Deals

Addy Saeed reviews two weeks of market data, noting the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% while U.S. inflation cooled, and explains that in Canada core inflation is below target (CPI median 1.9%, trim 1.8%) with headline CPI at 2.8%, reducing renewal-shock risk for borrowers but leaving investors constrained by flat rent inflation at 3.5% and shelter inflation at 1.6%. He argues this creates yield compression and stabilizes cap rates rather than expanding them, with Toronto high-rise caps roughly 3.85%–4.75% and B-class 4.15%–5.15%, and Ottawa about 4.5%–5.0%. The episode covers Minto Apartment REIT’s privatization requiring lender consent, a GTA townhouse project entering CCAA due to slow absorption, the Sept. 30, 2026 CMHC MLI Select deadline tightening new-construction financing, and Ontario’s new open-data release of Landlord and Tenant Board orders to improve tenant-risk underwriting.

00:00 Market Warning Setup
00:56 Inflation Data Breakdown
01:37 Rent Growth Reality
02:09 Key Takeaways Watchlist
02:46 Minto REIT Goes Private
03:33 Developer CCAA Stress
04:41 Cap Rates Stabilize
06:02 MLI Select Deadline
06:36 Debt Market Playbook
07:46 LTB Orders Go Public
08:35 Themes Recap Strategy
09:44 Wrap Up Disclosures

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Source:
https://www.podbean.com/eau/pb-32y8t-1b29e21

Cap Rates Locked, Rent Growth Capped & the CMHC MLI Select Deadline: What It Means for Ontario Deals
 
Addy Saeed reviews two weeks of market data, noting the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% while U.S. inflation cooled, and explains that in Canada core inflation is below target (CPI median 1.9%, trim 1.8%) with headline CPI at 2.8%, reducing renewal-shock risk for borrowers but leaving investors constrained by flat rent inflation at 3.5% and shelter inflation at 1.6%. He argues this creates yield compression and stabilizes cap rates rather than expanding them, with Toronto high-rise caps roughly 3.85%–4.75% and B-class 4.15%–5.15%, and Ottawa about 4.5%–5.0%. The episode covers Minto Apartment REIT’s privatization requiring lender consent, a GTA townhouse project entering CCAA due to slow absorption, the Sept. 30, 2026 CMHC MLI Select deadline tightening new-construction financing, and Ontario’s new open-data release of Landlord and Tenant Board orders to improve tenant-risk underwriting.
 
00:00 Market Warning Setup
00:56 Inflation Data Breakdown
01:37 Rent Growth Reality
02:09 Key Takeaways Watchlist
02:46 Minto REIT Goes Private
03:33 Developer CCAA Stress
04:41 Cap Rates Stabilize
06:02 MLI Select Deadline
06:36 Debt Market Playbook
07:46 LTB Orders Go Public
08:35 Themes Recap Strategy
09:44 Wrap Up Disclosures
 
About Your Hosts: Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I’ve navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.  
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/aboutGet access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

The Bank of Canada is holding rates steady through 2026 — one less worry for anyone facing a mortgage renewal. But the story isn’t that simple once you look south.

The Fed just tilted hawkish. More U.S. rate hikes may be coming, and that makes the American capital flowing into Canadian deals more expensive. If you’re underwriting with cross-border money in the stack, your cost of capital just got less predictable.

Meanwhile, Canada’s economy came in stronger than expected — Q2 GDP hit 2.2%, and household spending held up despite inflation. That keeps rental demand solid.

Bottom line: demand should stay strong, but financing conditions are stuck waiting on the Fed. That tension is exactly what belongs in your underwriting assumptions on the next deal.