Category: Market Updates

Canada’s Q2 GDP Surprise (3.4%), Ontario Rents Down 5.8%, LTB Arrears Data, Lankin’s Guelph Value-Add & H&R’s $6.7B REIT Breakup

Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad break down a packed Smart Real Estate episode covering Canada’s stronger-than-expected GDP rebound (May +0.3%, June estimate +0.2%, implying ~3.4% Q2 growth), with construction and real estate/rental/leasing posting a fourth straight monthly gain, while warning about revision-prone data and downside risk from trade tensions and new US tariffs. They review Urbanation’s Q2 2026 rent data showing national rents down 4.6% and Ontario down 5.8% year-over-year, alongside a first national vacancy decline to 4.7% after nine quarters of increases and Ontario apartments-under-construction up 4.1%. They share original research on 40,000+ Ontario LTB orders (84% landlord-filed; 58.6% L1 non-payment; 16% ex parte; Toronto area ~30%). The episode also covers Lankin’s 80-unit Guelph acquisition with CMHC financing and a large rent gap, H&R REIT’s $6.7B acquisition/breakup creating a major residential pure-play, and Ottawa’s $1.9B Via Rail fleet renewal excluding the Windsor–Quebec corridor, with Alto HSR flagged as the longer-horizon Ontario catalyst.

00:00 Macro vs Rents Setup
00:34 GDP Growth Breakdown
01:41 Risks and Key Takeaways
02:45 Ontario Rents Slide
03:29 Vacancy vs Supply Signals
04:57 LTB Data Deep Dive
06:58 Guelph Value Add Deal
09:09 H&R REIT Breakup Deal
11:37 Via Rail Spending Signal
12:31 Closing Themes and Wrap
14:01 Disclosures and Disclaimer

Join the Learn Invest Manage Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about
Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Source:
https://www.podbean.com/eau/pb-mf7yx-1b3f1d3

Canada’s Q2 GDP Surprise (3.4%), Ontario Rents Down 5.8%, LTB Arrears Data, Lankin’s Guelph Value-Add & H&R’s $6.7B REIT Breakup
 
Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad break down a packed Smart Real Estate episode covering Canada’s stronger-than-expected GDP rebound (May +0.3%, June estimate +0.2%, implying ~3.4% Q2 growth), with construction and real estate/rental/leasing posting a fourth straight monthly gain, while warning about revision-prone data and downside risk from trade tensions and new US tariffs. They review Urbanation’s Q2 2026 rent data showing national rents down 4.6% and Ontario down 5.8% year-over-year, alongside a first national vacancy decline to 4.7% after nine quarters of increases and Ontario apartments-under-construction up 4.1%. They share original research on 40,000+ Ontario LTB orders (84% landlord-filed; 58.6% L1 non-payment; 16% ex parte; Toronto area ~30%). The episode also covers Lankin’s 80-unit Guelph acquisition with CMHC financing and a large rent gap, H&R REIT’s $6.7B acquisition/breakup creating a major residential pure-play, and Ottawa’s $1.9B Via Rail fleet renewal excluding the Windsor–Quebec corridor, with Alto HSR flagged as the longer-horizon Ontario catalyst.
 
00:00 Macro vs Rents Setup
00:34 GDP Growth Breakdown
01:41 Risks and Key Takeaways
02:45 Ontario Rents Slide
03:29 Vacancy vs Supply Signals
04:57 LTB Data Deep Dive
06:58 Guelph Value Add Deal
09:09 H&R REIT Breakup Deal
11:37 Via Rail Spending Signal
12:31 Closing Themes and Wrap
14:01 Disclosures and Disclaimer
 
About Your Hosts: Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I’ve navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.  
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/aboutGet access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Toronto Rents Rising, GTA Listings Falling: What “Tightening” Means for Your Underwriting

Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad break down three data releases pointing to “tightening” conditions across Ontario: a July jobs report showing 75,000 new jobs and 6.4% unemployment alongside cooler wage growth (3% vs. 3.7%), which CIBC says supports a Bank of Canada hold through 2026 into early 2027; national rent growth for a fourth straight month with Toronto up 1.6% MoM in July, annual rents down just 0.6% and listings down ~6% YoY, while Ontario’s 0.6% monthly gain still sits with a 3.7% annual decline and wide sub-market dispersion; and TRREB’s July resale data with sales down 0.9% YoY, new listings down 17.8%, and HPI down 4.6% YoY but up MoM (SA), plus current financing benchmarks (BoC ~2.25%, prime ~4.5%, 5-year fixed ~6.09%) emphasizing underwriting to today’s rates, not anticipated cuts.

00:00 Markets Tightening Overview
00:22 Jobs Report Blowout
00:43 Rates On Hold Implications
01:09 Rental Demand Signals
02:28 National Rents Turning Up
02:57 Ontario Submarket Divergence
03:36 Seasonality And Underwriting
04:29 GTA Resale Tightening
05:03 Financing Benchmarks Reality
05:39 Regulatory Friction Bear Case
07:01 Segment Takeaways And CTA
07:55 Three Themes Recap
08:44 Disclosures And Disclaimer

Join the Learn Invest Manage Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about
Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Source:
https://www.podbean.com/eau/pb-axqmt-1b36ec9

Toronto Rents Rising, GTA Listings Falling: What “Tightening” Means for Your Underwriting
 
Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad break down three data releases pointing to “tightening” conditions across Ontario: a July jobs report showing 75,000 new jobs and 6.4% unemployment alongside cooler wage growth (3% vs. 3.7%), which CIBC says supports a Bank of Canada hold through 2026 into early 2027; national rent growth for a fourth straight month with Toronto up 1.6% MoM in July, annual rents down just 0.6% and listings down ~6% YoY, while Ontario’s 0.6% monthly gain still sits with a 3.7% annual decline and wide sub-market dispersion; and TRREB’s July resale data with sales down 0.9% YoY, new listings down 17.8%, and HPI down 4.6% YoY but up MoM (SA), plus current financing benchmarks (BoC ~2.25%, prime ~4.5%, 5-year fixed ~6.09%) emphasizing underwriting to today’s rates, not anticipated cuts.
 
00:00 Markets Tightening Overview
00:22 Jobs Report Blowout
00:43 Rates On Hold Implications
01:09 Rental Demand Signals
02:28 National Rents Turning Up
02:57 Ontario Submarket Divergence
03:36 Seasonality And Underwriting
04:29 GTA Resale Tightening
05:03 Financing Benchmarks Reality
05:39 Regulatory Friction Bear Case
07:01 Segment Takeaways And CTA
07:55 Three Themes Recap
08:44 Disclosures And Disclaimer
 
About Your Hosts: Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I’ve navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.  
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/aboutGet access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Cap Rates Locked, Rent Growth Capped & the CMHC MLI Select Deadline: What It Means for Ontario Deals

Addy Saeed reviews two weeks of market data, noting the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% while U.S. inflation cooled, and explains that in Canada core inflation is below target (CPI median 1.9%, trim 1.8%) with headline CPI at 2.8%, reducing renewal-shock risk for borrowers but leaving investors constrained by flat rent inflation at 3.5% and shelter inflation at 1.6%. He argues this creates yield compression and stabilizes cap rates rather than expanding them, with Toronto high-rise caps roughly 3.85%–4.75% and B-class 4.15%–5.15%, and Ottawa about 4.5%–5.0%. The episode covers Minto Apartment REIT’s privatization requiring lender consent, a GTA townhouse project entering CCAA due to slow absorption, the Sept. 30, 2026 CMHC MLI Select deadline tightening new-construction financing, and Ontario’s new open-data release of Landlord and Tenant Board orders to improve tenant-risk underwriting.

00:00 Market Warning Setup
00:56 Inflation Data Breakdown
01:37 Rent Growth Reality
02:09 Key Takeaways Watchlist
02:46 Minto REIT Goes Private
03:33 Developer CCAA Stress
04:41 Cap Rates Stabilize
06:02 MLI Select Deadline
06:36 Debt Market Playbook
07:46 LTB Orders Go Public
08:35 Themes Recap Strategy
09:44 Wrap Up Disclosures

Join the Learn Invest Manage Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about
Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Source:
https://www.podbean.com/eau/pb-32y8t-1b29e21

Cap Rates Locked, Rent Growth Capped & the CMHC MLI Select Deadline: What It Means for Ontario Deals
 
Addy Saeed reviews two weeks of market data, noting the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% while U.S. inflation cooled, and explains that in Canada core inflation is below target (CPI median 1.9%, trim 1.8%) with headline CPI at 2.8%, reducing renewal-shock risk for borrowers but leaving investors constrained by flat rent inflation at 3.5% and shelter inflation at 1.6%. He argues this creates yield compression and stabilizes cap rates rather than expanding them, with Toronto high-rise caps roughly 3.85%–4.75% and B-class 4.15%–5.15%, and Ottawa about 4.5%–5.0%. The episode covers Minto Apartment REIT’s privatization requiring lender consent, a GTA townhouse project entering CCAA due to slow absorption, the Sept. 30, 2026 CMHC MLI Select deadline tightening new-construction financing, and Ontario’s new open-data release of Landlord and Tenant Board orders to improve tenant-risk underwriting.
 
00:00 Market Warning Setup
00:56 Inflation Data Breakdown
01:37 Rent Growth Reality
02:09 Key Takeaways Watchlist
02:46 Minto REIT Goes Private
03:33 Developer CCAA Stress
04:41 Cap Rates Stabilize
06:02 MLI Select Deadline
06:36 Debt Market Playbook
07:46 LTB Orders Go Public
08:35 Themes Recap Strategy
09:44 Wrap Up Disclosures
 
About Your Hosts: Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I’ve navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.  
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/aboutGet access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

The Bank of Canada is holding rates steady through 2026 — one less worry for anyone facing a mortgage renewal. But the story isn’t that simple once you look south.

The Fed just tilted hawkish. More U.S. rate hikes may be coming, and that makes the American capital flowing into Canadian deals more expensive. If you’re underwriting with cross-border money in the stack, your cost of capital just got less predictable.

Meanwhile, Canada’s economy came in stronger than expected — Q2 GDP hit 2.2%, and household spending held up despite inflation. That keeps rental demand solid.

Bottom line: demand should stay strong, but financing conditions are stuck waiting on the Fed. That tension is exactly what belongs in your underwriting assumptions on the next deal.