Inflation, the Bank of Canada Decision, Condo Financing and Infill
BoC Oct 28 Preview: Inflation, Bond Yields, Condo Lending Freeze & CMHC’s Long-Game Housing Data
Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad cover four topics ahead of the Bank of Canada’s Oct 28 decision: RBC’s Oct 16 housing update (GTA resales down 5.3% in September, national resales down 2.3%, national prices down 0.4% m/m and 3.5% y/y, with declines accelerating and new listings down 1.8%); inflation and rates (Sept CPI 3.1% y/y driven by gasoline, ex-gas 2.2%, CPI trim 1.8, median 1.9, rent up 0.5% m/m and 2.8% y/y; policy rate 2.25% with bond yields rising about 20 bps); why condo construction financing is stalled (70% presale threshold, low starts, rising unsold inventory) while funds buy finished units in bulk; and two CMHC “long game” items on small-scale infill growth in Toronto and the share of homes needing major repairs, highlighting deferred maintenance as an underwriting risk.
00:00 Welcome and Agenda
01:13 RBC Housing Update
03:07 Inflation and Rate Outlook
07:52 Condo Lending Freeze
11:57 CMHC Infill and Repairs
14:37 Themes and Wrap Up
16:26 Disclosures and Credits
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