Toronto’s Real Estate Market Is Tightening: Is the Bottom Finally Here?
Source:
https://www.podbean.com/eau/pb-axqmt-1b36ec9
Toronto Rents Rising, GTA Listings Falling: What “Tightening” Means for Your Underwriting
Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad break down three data releases pointing to “tightening” conditions across Ontario: a July jobs report showing 75,000 new jobs and 6.4% unemployment alongside cooler wage growth (3% vs. 3.7%), which CIBC says supports a Bank of Canada hold through 2026 into early 2027; national rent growth for a fourth straight month with Toronto up 1.6% MoM in July, annual rents down just 0.6% and listings down ~6% YoY, while Ontario’s 0.6% monthly gain still sits with a 3.7% annual decline and wide sub-market dispersion; and TRREB’s July resale data with sales down 0.9% YoY, new listings down 17.8%, and HPI down 4.6% YoY but up MoM (SA), plus current financing benchmarks (BoC ~2.25%, prime ~4.5%, 5-year fixed ~6.09%) emphasizing underwriting to today’s rates, not anticipated cuts.
00:00 Markets Tightening Overview
00:22 Jobs Report Blowout
00:43 Rates On Hold Implications
01:09 Rental Demand Signals
02:28 National Rents Turning Up
02:57 Ontario Submarket Divergence
03:36 Seasonality And Underwriting
04:29 GTA Resale Tightening
05:03 Financing Benchmarks Reality
05:39 Regulatory Friction Bear Case
07:01 Segment Takeaways And CTA
07:55 Three Themes Recap
08:44 Disclosures And Disclaimer
About Your Hosts: Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I’ve navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.
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